← GG Adelaide DTR Regional

Fire RileTier 1

at GG Adelaide DTR Regional

decks
7 (25.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
31 16-9-6
overall winrate
61.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
56.7% avg ELO +2.4 per match
expected value
54.7% share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
53.4% share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1371 · median 1365 · range 1230–1563 (7 pilots with an ELO rating)
1046 Q1 1196 Q3 1344 1563
57% of pilots are in the field's top quartile, 0% in the bottom. This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups

Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.

Opponent Their share Matches W-L-D Raw WR Shrunk WR Adj WR ELO Δ/match
Fire Suited 10.7% 3 3-0-0 100.0% 71.4% 63.1% +9.8
Fire Firebloom Burn 7.1% 2 1-0-1 75.0% 58.3% 49.5% -0.5
Fire Suzaku 7.1% 4 1-2-1 37.5% 43.8% 54.8% +3.1
Water Fractal 7.1% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 52.9% +2.8
Water Genbu 7.1% 2 0-1-1 25.0% 41.7% 43.9% -5.9
Wind Seiryuu 7.1% 4 3-1-0 75.0% 62.5% 67.9% +11.5
Fire Aggro 3.6% 0 — — — — —
Fire Luxem Assassin 3.6% 0 — — — — —
Fire Oblation 3.6% 1 0-0-1 50.0% 50.0% 44.2% -9.3
Fire Umbra Ranger 3.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 60.2% +9.8
Slimes 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 59.0% +14.3
Water Aetherwing 3.6% 1 0-1-0 0.0% 40.0% 35.2% -23.7
Water Allies 3.6% 1 1-0-0 100.0% 60.0% 58.2% +13.1
Water Ciel 3.6% 2 1-1-0 50.0% 50.0% 46.2% -3.7
Wind Crux Lorraine 3.6% 2 2-0-0 100.0% 66.7% 59.7% +9.3
Wind Shadowstrike 3.6% 2 0-0-2 50.0% 50.0% 52.0% +1.9
Wind Umbra Ranger 3.6% 2 0-2-0 0.0% 33.3% 32.4% -16.9
Decklists · 7 from this event

The 7 public Fire Rile decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.

Mirror Analysis

In 3 mirror matches (1 draw excluded), here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.

Losers more often ran: Stalwart Shieldmate, Resolute Stand, Blanche, Sheltering Saint.

↑ Played more by winners

No cards correlated with winning.

↓ Played more by losers
Stalwart Shieldmate
Stalwart Shieldmate
Losing decks ran 3.7 copies on average, winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 3, the winner ran more in 0, both ran the same in 0.
Resolute Stand
Resolute Stand
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 2.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Blanche, Sheltering Saint
Losing decks ran 1.3 copies on average, winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Evercurrent Raider
Evercurrent Raider
Losing decks ran 3.3 copies on average, winning decks 1.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in 2, the winner ran more in 1, both ran the same in 0.
Show all 56 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 52 held back from the grid above)
Card Edge In winner In loser Same Direction
Stalwart Shieldmate -1.00 0 3 0
Reduce to Ash -0.67 0 2 1
Ghosts of Pendragon -0.67 0 2 1
Staggering Strike -0.67 0 2 0
Dungeon Guide -0.67 0 2 1
Carnwennan, Shrouded Edge -0.67 0 2 1
Arondight, Azure Blade -0.67 0 2 1
Lorraine, Crux Knight -0.67 0 2 1
Spirit Blade: Ensoul -0.67 0 2 1
Fluffy Shopkeep -0.67 0 2 1
Deflecting Edge -0.67 0 2 0
Flame Sweep -0.67 0 2 1
Clarent, Reimagined -0.67 0 2 1
Crux Sight -0.67 0 2 1
Cremation Ritual -0.67 0 2 1
Lorraine, Blademaster -0.67 0 2 1
Crystallized Destiny -0.67 0 2 1
Drawn Blade -0.67 0 2 1
Spellward Scepter -0.67 0 2 1
Incapacitate -0.67 0 2 1
Votive Runeblade -0.67 0 2 1
Clarent, Sword of Peace -0.67 0 2 1
Fiery Interference +0.67 2 0 1
Rending Flames -0.67 0 2 1
Lorraine, Wandering Warrior -0.67 0 2 1
Regal Inquisition -0.67 0 2 1
Annul Spell -0.67 0 2 1
Guo Jia, Chosen Disciple +0.67 2 0 0
Vermilion Decree +0.67 2 0 0
Searing Truth +0.67 2 0 0
Fire Resonance Bauble +0.67 2 0 0
Viridian Protective Trinket +0.67 2 0 0
Heated Vengeance +0.67 2 0 0
Embercrypt Burn +0.67 2 0 0
Three of Hearts +0.67 2 0 0
Demolition +0.67 2 0 0
Smoke Bombs +0.67 2 0 0
Peppered Chef +0.67 2 0 0
Vengeful Paramour +0.67 2 0 0
Spark Alight +0.67 2 0 0
Restorative Flame +0.67 2 0 0
Blazing Throw +0.67 2 0 0
Flamewreath Call +0.67 2 0 0
Safeguard Amulet +0.67 2 0 0
Shatter the Brittle +0.67 2 0 0
Guo Jia, Blessed Scion +0.67 2 0 0
Tariff Ring +0.67 2 0 0
Nullifying Mirror +0.67 2 0 0
Censer of Restful Peace +0.67 2 0 0
Fabled Ruby Fatestone +0.67 2 0 0
Impact Hammer +0.67 2 0 0
Portentous Tanggu +0.67 2 0 0
Suzaku's Command +0.67 2 0 0
Resolute Stand -0.33 1 2 0
Blanche, Sheltering Saint -0.33 1 2 0
Evercurrent Raider -0.33 1 2 0

JSON: /api/events/31793/archetypes/Fire Rile